The Role of Futures Studies in Anticipatory Governance of Emerging Technologies: Focusing on Financial Technologies

Document Type : Research paper

Authors

1 Department of Management, Faculty of Management, Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Technology Management, ,Department of Technology Management, ST.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

3 Advanced Banking Management, Iranian Banking Institute of Higher Education

Abstract

The rapid rise of financial technologies (FinTech) and fundamental transformations within the financial services ecosystem have confronted traditional regulatory paradigms with the "pacing problem"—a situation where the speed of technological innovation outpaces institutional capacities for regulation and supervision, paving the way for emerging systemic risks. Under such circumstances, sole reliance on reactive and ex-post policy-making approaches lacks the necessary efficacy to manage uncertain futures. Therefore, the present research aims to elucidate the strategic role of futures studies in the transition from reactive to anticipatory governance in the realm of financial technologies. To this end, the research was conducted in two phases: In the first phase, a preliminary theoretical framework was extracted using the meta-synthesis method on 38 papers selected from the Web of Science database. In the second phase, this framework served as a basis for directed content analysis on 10 strategic reports from global reference institutions (as field data) to extract precise policy implications. The research findings were organized into three main axes: First, identifying a methodological transition in FinTech futures studies from point forecasting toward a paradigm of resilience and stress testing for managing uncertainty. Second, identifying the megatrends shaping the future of the financial system, particularly the transition to Agentic AI and the deployment of Unified Ledger infrastructures for integrating digital assets. Third, explaining adaptive governance mechanisms, including the shift from the role of a classic supervisor to an "ecosystem architect" and the utilization of tools such as pioneering regimes and smart supervision. Finally, by presenting a conceptual model of a futures-based policy-making cycle, the research demonstrates how the processes of sensing, interpreting, and acting can—in a continuous and learning manner—facilitate a sustainable balance between fostering technological innovations and maintaining financial stability.

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References

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