Structural Analysis of Chip‑Design Drivers in Iran

Document Type : Research paper

Authors

1 PhD Candidate in Science and Technology Policy, Tarbiat Modares UniversityTehran، Iran

2 TProfessor of Information Technology Management, Tarbiat Modares University، Tehran، Iran

3 Senior researcher in technology management, HEC Montreal business school, Montreal, Canada

Abstract

The semiconductor industry has recently become a critical infrastructure for digital transformation, technological competitiveness, and even national security. Within this industry, chip design — a knowledge‑intensive and relatively capital‑light segment of the semiconductor value chain — represents a realistic entry point for developing countries. Despite this potential, the future trajectory of chip design in Iran is subject to technological, institutional, and economic uncertainties that cannot be fully explained by purely technical analysis. This study asks which structural forces most shape chip‑design development in Iran and how policy can be better informed by those forces.
To identify the key drivers of chip‑design development in Iran, we employ a structural analysis approach. First, through a systematic literature review of the semiconductor industry, innovation ecosystems, and technology policy, supplemented by expert interviews and consultations, we generated an initial set of influencing variables. That list was iteratively reviewed and consolidated into ten final variables across four dimensions: technological, institutional, economic, and human resources. Next, the pairwise relationships among these variables were assessed using a cross‑impact matrix based on judgments from ten experts in chip design, technology policy, and investment; the data were analyzed using the MICMAC software.
Findings indicate that government support and policy and connection to international markets and participation in the global value chain” possess the greatest structural influence on other chip‑design components and therefore act as the principal drivers of the sector’s future in Iran. By contrast, factors such as advanced design capability, quality of specialist training, talent retention, access to design tools, and access to foundry capacity mostly occupy dependent positions and are strongly influenced by the status of the two drivers. This pattern suggests that the principal challenge for developing chip design in Iran is less a purely technical problem and more a structural and policy‑oriented one. Addressing it requires a combination of stable, predictable government support and strengthened channels for integration into global knowledge, technology, and market networks.

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References

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