The Future of Iran’s Telecommunications Industry in the Face of Macro Transformations: Identifying the Critical Drivers of the Business Ecosystem

Document Type : Research paper

Authors

1 PhD Candidate in Industrial Management,Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran,

2 AssosiateProfessor of Futures Studies, National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP),Tehran,Iran

3 Assistant Professor of Futures Studies,University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The telecommunications industry is undergoing a profound transformation driven by the convergence of fifth- and sixth-generation (5G/6G) communication technologies, the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence, and edge computing. In this emerging landscape, the traditional role of networks as mere data transmission infrastructures is rapidly evolving into intelligent, service-oriented platforms that enable the formation of digital ecosystems and data-driven business models. Consequently, the logic of value creation and capture in the telecommunications sector is being fundamentally redefined. In the context of Iran, however, this transformation is shaped by a unique combination of institutional constraints, financial limitations, and environmental uncertainties, which complicate strategic decision-making and long-term planning. Against this backdrop, the present study aims to identify, prioritize, and structurally analyze the key macro-environmental factors influencing the future of next-generation telecommunications services in Iran, with a particular focus on their implications for the business model canvas (BMC).
Background: Existing literature on 5G and 6G has predominantly focused on technological capabilities, network architectures, and conceptual business model innovation. While these studies highlight the importance of platform-based and ecosystem-driven value creation, they often overlook the broader macro-environmental context in which such transformations unfold. Moreover, most empirical investigations have been conducted in developed economies, with limited attention to transitional or constrained environments characterized by regulatory instability, restricted access to capital, and geopolitical pressures. In such contexts, macro-level factors—such as regulatory frameworks, financial conditions, and political dynamics—play a critical role in shaping technological adoption and business model evolution. Furthermore, prior research has rarely employed integrated methodological approaches that combine expert consensus techniques with structural analysis to systematically examine the interdependencies among influencing factors. This study addresses these gaps by adopting a hybrid fuzzy Delphi–MICMAC approach to provide a comprehensive, system-level understanding of the drivers of telecommunications transformation in Iran.
This study adopts an exploratory, applied design using a three-stage hybrid approach. In the first stage, a systematic literature review of 87 selected sources (from an initial pool of 156) published between 2015 and 2025 was conducted across major databases. This process led to the identification of 143 preliminary factors, which were refined to 34 key factors across six domains: technological, market and customer, organizational, financial–economic, regulatory–legal, and environmental–social. In the second stage, a three-round fuzzy Delphi process was carried out with 13 experts from telecommunications operators, regulatory bodies, technology firms, and academia. Using a seven-point linguistic scale converted into triangular fuzzy numbers, experts evaluated the importance

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References

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