مطالعه مروری از کاربردها و روش‌های آینده‌نگاری در سیاست‌گذاری سلامت: تجارب بین‌المللی و اقتضائات ملی

نویسندگان

1 گروه آینده پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت علم و فناوری، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر (پلی تکنیک تهران)، تهران، ایران

2 معاون پژوهشی پژوهشکده چشم‌انداز و آینده‌پژوهی

3 مدیریت تکنولوژی، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و مهندسی پیشرفت، دانشگاه علم و صنعت، تهران، ایران

4 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه علوم پزشکی بقیة الله اعظم (عج)، تهران- عضو گروه آینده‌نگری، نظریه پردازی و رصد کلان فرهنگستان علوم پزشکی،

چکیده

هدف: اهمیت زمینه‌های مرتبط با حوزه سلامت به‌عنوان دغدغه اصلی صاحب‌نظران، سیاست‌گذاران و متولیان نظام سلامت بر کسی پوشیده نیست. فقدان رویکرد آینده‌نگرانه در سیاست‌گذاری و برنامه‌ریزی سلامت کشور، احتمال ظهور مشکلات سیستمی و تبعات هزینه‌ای را افزایش می‌دهد. آینده‌پژوهی در سلامت با مطالعه، تحقیق و بررسی نظام‌مند معطوف به زمان آینده، عوامل کلیدی و محیط درون و برون سیستمی را شناسایی کرده و با اتکا به فهم ظرفیت‌های آتی، کمک شایانی در امر تصمیم‌گیری می‌نماید.
روش: در این مقاله نویسندگان با مرور طرح‌های داخلی و خارجی آینده‌پژوهی در سلامت و توسعه تحقیقاتی پیرامون آن، مهم‌ترین و رایج‌ترین روش‌های آینده‌اندیشی در حوزه سلامت را استخراج کرده و با استفاده از منطق ریخت‌شناسی، نتایجی در خصوص حوزه‌های کاربری آن‌ها گردآوری کرده‌اند. با توجه به نیاز سیاست‌مداران و تصمیم‌گیران عرصه سلامت کشور، در این مقاله اجمالاً مصادیق کاربردی و نحوه کاربست روش‌های اصلی آینده‌پژوهی در حوزه سلامت عرضه شده و بر اساس آن‌ها و مصاحبه‌های خبرگانی و پنل کارشناسی، مقایسه صورت گرفته است.‌ به کمک مطالعات مروری و تطبیقی، امکان مقایسه و تشخیص نقاط قوت و ضعف هر روش به‌دست آمده است و نتایج آن در جدولی ارائه شده است.
یافته‌ها و نتیجه‌گیری: کاربست روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی در نظام سلامت ملی ایران می‌تواند به‌منزله سیستم هشداردهنده‌ای برای آگاهی از فرصت‌ها و تهدیدات پیش از بحران، یا مطالعات پشتیبان و تصمیم‌یار نظام سلامت به‌حساب آید. اگر فهم و تسلطی بر نحوه و شرایط پیاده‌سازی تکنیک‌ها به وجود آید، آنگاه می‌توان به مزیت آینده‌نگری در نظام سلامت امیدوار بود و زمینه‌ای برای جایگزین‌ ساختن رویکرد پیشگیرانه به‌جای واکنش‌گری در سیاست‌های سلامت کشور ایجاد نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

A review on methods and applications of foresight in health policy: international practices and national considerations

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad sadeq Sediqi 1
  • Ahmad Borumand Kakhki 2
  • Saeed Asghari 3
  • Shahram Tofighi 4
1 Future studies department, management science and technology faculty, Amirkabir university of technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Vice President For Research of Vision & Futures Studies Institution
3 Technology Management, School of Management, Economics and Progress Engineering, University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
4 Faculty member of Baqiyatallah Azam University of Medical Sciences, Tehran - Member of the Department of Foresight, Theorizing and Macro Observation of the Academy of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Purpose: Increasing evidence highlights the significance of foresight for those who are involved in the healthcare system. Lack of prospective approaches squanders countries' income and increases the chance of emergence of predicaments. Futures Studies in health by systematically studying, researching and examining the future, identifying key factors and the internal and external environment of the system and relying on the understanding of future capacities, helps in decision making.
Method: In this paper, the authors extracted the most common approaches in foresight of health and also interviewed with Iranian experts of the field. By presenting international and domestic practices of health foresight, we compared different foresight techniques and summerized their strengths and weaknesses. Providing inclusive perception of which techniques to use and under which circumstances it is appropriate to apply foresight methods.
Findings and Conclusions: This paper gives a better understanding of foresight methods and how prospective approaches can be beneficial in healthcare. Therefore, decision makers and healthcare professionals can develop a preventive approach instead of a reactive approach by enhancing exploratory and strategic dimension in health policies. Undoubtedly, the position of health and the way of providing relevant services in the world of the future and even in the next decade is very different from the picture of today.
Keywords: Foresight, Foresight Methods, Decision Making, Health System, Health Care Services
Keywords: Foresight, Foresight Methods, Decision Making, Health System, Health Care Services

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foresight
  • Foresight Methods
  • Decision Making
  • Health System
  • Health Care Services

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