سناریونگاری آینده انرژی ایران با ترکیب رویکرد درون‌قالبی و تحلیل ریخت‌شناسی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری، گروه آیندهپژوهی، مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه آیندهپژوهی، مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار، دانشکده مهندسی انرژی، دانشگاه شریف، تهران، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به پیچیدگی‌های سناریونگاری انرژی و نیاز آن به مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و مدل‌های کمی و کیفی گسترده، امکان سناریونگاری در بعضی از مطالعات داخلی با توجه به محدودیت‌های تحقیقاتی فراهم نیست. از سوی دیگر به‌‌کارگیری سناریوهای جهانی برای شرایط داخلی، بدون تغییرات لازم با توجه به پیشران‌های خاص انرژی ایران نیز خالی از اشکال نیست. بر این اساس هدف اصلی این پژوهش، توسعه سناریوهای انرژی ایران بر مبنای «تقاطع سناریوهای جهانی انرژی» و «عدم قطعیت‌های داخلی آینده انرژی ایران» و با بهره‌گیری از ترکیب نوآورانه رویکرد سناریونگاری «درون‌قالبی» و تحلیل «ریخت‌شناسی» است. در این راستا، پس از شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر آینده انرژی ایران بر مبنای مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و مصاحبه‌های اکتشافی، عدم قطعیت‌های کلیدی آینده انرژی ایران به کمک روش «دلفی»، «تحلیل تأثیر متقابل» و نرم‌افزار «میک مک» به دست آمد که شامل «تحریم» و «نوع بازار انرژی ایران» بود. افزون بر این، پس از بررسی سناریوهای انرژی جهانی مؤسسه‌های معتبر بین‌المللی، بر مبنای نظرات گروه کانونی، سناریوی شورای جهانی انرژی 2060 به عنوان سناریوی منتخب برگزیده شد. سپس بر مبنای نظرات خبرگان، به کمک منطق تحلیل ریخت‌شناسی و نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد، سه سناریو «اینک آخرالزمان»، «عصر جدید» و «میان‌ستاره‌ای» به عنوان سناریوهای سازگار آینده انرژی ایران، شناسایی و با رویکرد درون‌قالبی توسعه داده شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Scenario Planning of Iran’s Energy Futures by Combining Incasting Approach and Morphological Analysis by Combining Incasting Approach and Morphological Analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Nasresfahani 1
  • naser bagheri moghaddam 2
  • amir nazemi 2
  • abbas maleki 3
1 National Research Institute for Science Policy,Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Futures Studies Department, National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP), Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Energy Engineering Department, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Due to the complexities of energy scenario planning and the need for library studies and extensive quantitative and qualitative models, scenario planning is not possible in some internal studies due to research limitations. On the other hand, it is also problematic to use global scenarios without the necessary changes for domestic conditions, due to Iran's specific energy drives. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to develop energy scenarios for Iran based on the intersection of global energy scenarios and internal uncertainties of Iran's future energy, using an innovative combination of incasting scenario approach and morphological analysis. In this regard, after identifying the factors affecting Iran's energy future based on library studies and exploratory interviews, key uncertainties of Iran's energy future were obtained using delphi method, cross impact analysis and MicMac software, which included sanctions and the type of Iranian energy market. In addition, after reviewing global energy scenarios from reputable international institutions, based on the views of the focus group, the scenario of the World Energy Council 2060 was selected as the selected scenario. Then, based on the opinions of experts, with the help of morphological analysis logic and Wizard scenario software, three scenarios "Apocalypse Now", "New Age" and "Interstellar" were identified as compatible scenarios for Iran's energy future and developed with an incasting approach. Policy recommendations were also tailored to each scenario, and based on the results of this study, it is recommended that researchers examine the robustness of the country's energy science and technology priorities such as solar energy, wind energy and hydrogen energy in the scenarios resulting from this study.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy Scenario planning
  • Cross Impact Analysis
  • Morphological Analysis
  • Incasting Approach
  • iran

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