نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه تهران (دانشکدگان فارابی)
2 کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشکدگان فارابی، دانشگاه تهران، قم، ایران
3 دانشیار پژوهشکده مطالعات بنیادین علم و فناوری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Due to structural limitations and water resource constraints, the development of digital agriculture in Iran is an unavoidable strategic necessity. Although international studies emphasize the components of social acceptance and technological infrastructure, the lack of indigenous scenarios and a coherent methodological framework represents the most significant research gap in this field. This applied and forward-looking research, utilizing the intuitive logic scenario planning method, develops transition scenarios for digital agriculture in Iran and provides tangible policy insights. The research methodology is qualitative, developmental, and forward-looking, with data collected in two phases: documentary and field studies (with the participation of 16 experts). The analysis process was conducted in five stages: defining the time horizon to 1425 (2045 AD), identifying 20 driving forces using the STEEP framework, assessing impact and uncertainty, constructing a scenario matrix, and identifying possible, probable, and preferable scenarios. The findings revealed two key uncertainties—"level of technological development" and "level of social acceptance"—as the main axes, based on which four scenarios were developed: "Digital Green Gold" (preferable scenario with advanced technology and high acceptance), "Green Pulse" (probable scenario with high acceptance but limited technology), "Frozen Dawn" (possible and unfavorable scenario with high technology but low acceptance), and "Silent Ground" (catastrophic scenario with low technology and low acceptance). Realizing the preferable scenario requires five fundamental policy actions: developing rural digital infrastructure, enhancing farmers' digital literacy through targeted training, designing supportive and incentive policies including financial facilities and smart crop insurance, implementing pilot projects and innovation networks, and strengthening international cooperation for the transfer of technical knowledge and successful experiences. Ultimately, without active, coordinated, and sustained intervention by the government and other actors and stakeholders in these five areas, the likelihood of the country moving toward unfavorable scenarios, especially "Silent Ground," will increase significantly.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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