تحلیل کارکردهای سیاستی آینده‌‎نگاری علم و فناوری و نوآوری: مطالعه موردی برنامه ملی آینده‌نگاری علم و فناوری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار مدیریت تکنولوژی، پژوهشکده مطالعات بنیادین علم وفناوری،دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات نوآوری و توسعه فناوری‌‌های راهبردی، موسسه تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور، تهران، ایران

3 کارشناسی‌ارشد سیاستگذاری علم و فناوری، پژوهشکده مطالعات بنیادین علم و فناوری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

10.22034/rahyaft.2026.12329.1671

چکیده

آینده‌نگاری علم، فناوری و نوآوری، فعالیتی برای فهم آینده و رویکردی برای حمایت از سیاست‎گذاری و تصمیم‌گیری در شرایط عدم‌قطعیت است. در این راستا سازمان‌های بین‌المللی و کشورهای مختلفی در سراسر جهان تقویت کارکردهای سیاستی آینده‌‌نگاری را مورد توجه قرار داده‌اند. بر این اساس هدف پژوهش حاضر ارائه چارچوب و تحلیل کارکردهای آینده‌نگاری در سیاست‎گذاری علم و فناوری با تمرکز بر برنامه ملی آینده نگاری علم و فناوری در ایران است. رویکرد این مطالعه کیفی، راهبرد آن مطالعه موردی و قلمرو زمانی مورد بررسی آن از سال 1393 تا 1405 است. داده‌های اولیه مورد نیاز با انجام 14 مصاحبه نیمه‌ساختار یافته و داده‌های ثانویه از اقدامات، اسناد و گزارش‌های منتشر شده توسط دبیرخانه برنامه ملی آینده‌نگاری علم و فناوری جمع‌آوری شده است. با مرور پیشینه و کدگذاری محوری داده‌های جمع‌آوری شده، 5 کارکرد آینده‌نگاری در سیاست‎گذاری علم و فناوری شامل تقویت هوشمندی سیاستی؛ اطلاع‌رسانی و گفتمان‌سازی در خصوص آینده؛ ارتقاء هوشمندی کسب‎وکار؛ مشاوره سیاستی و پشتیبانی از اجرای سیاست و توانمندسازی نظام حکمرانی/ سیاست‎گذاری در برنامه ملی آینده‌نگاری علم و فناوری مورد تحلیل قرار گرفته است. بر اساس یافته‌های ما، کارکردهای تقویت هوشمندی سیاستی و اطلاع‌رسانی و گفتمان‌سازی در خصوص آینده مورد توجه بیشتری در ایران قرار گرفته‌اند که همراستا با کارکردهای سیاستی آینده‌نگاری علم و فناوری در پیشینه است. در مقابل اقدامات صورت گرفته در کارکردهای ارتقاء هوشمندی کسب ‎وکار، مشاوره سیاستی و پشتیبانی از اجرای سیاست و توانمندسازی نظام حکمرانی/ سیاست‎گذاری محدودتر بوده و در مقایسه با تجارب بین‌المللی نیازمند تقویت و افزایش اثربخشی می‌باشد. یافته‌های این پژوهش دلالت‌های مدیریتی و سیاستی برای تقویت کارکردهای سیاستی آینده نگاری علم، فناوری و نوآوری ارائه می‌نماید

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Exploring the policy-related functions of the STI foresight: case study of Iran's National S&T Foresight Programme

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kiarash Fartash 1
  • Parisa Navab Irani 2
  • Amirhadi Azizi 3
1 Associate Professor in Technology Management , Institute for Science and Technology Studies, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD Student of Innovation Studies and Strategic Technology Development, National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP), Tehran, Iran
3 Master of Science and Technology Policy, Institute for Science and Technology Studies, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) Foresight serves as a vital tool for navigating future uncertainties and supporting evidence-based policymaking. There is a growing emphasis on reinforcing the functions of foresight within the policy process. To this end, the current study aims to propose a framework for foresight functions in STI policymaking with a focus on Iran’s National STI Foresight Programme from 2014 to 2026. We adopted a qualitative case study methodology. We gathered primary data through 14 semi-structured interviews and secondary data from the published reports of the programme under study. By axial coding of the data, we identified five functions, i.e., strengthening policy intelligence; informing and shaping discourse on the future; enhancing business intelligence; policy advice and policy implementation support; and empowering the governance/ policymaking system. Our findings indicate that two functions, strengthening policy intelligence and informing and discourse-building, have received more attention in the Iranian context, which aligns with the literature and the experience of leading countries. In contrast, attention to the remaining functions, including promoting business intelligence, providing policy advice, supporting policy implementation, and empowering the governance/ policy-making system, has been limited compared to international experiences. Our results can be used to institutionalize foresight as a mechanism to support the entire STI policy process. The findings of this study provide managerial and policy implications for strengthening STI foresight's policy functions in the context of Iran as well as other developing countries, where foresight is not considered as an effective mechanism of STI policy making and STI governance.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foresight
  • S&T Foresight
  • STI Foresight
  • Policy Functions of Foresight
  • National S&T Foresight Programme

مراجع

Aykut, S., Demortain, D., & Benboudiz, B. (2019). The politics of anticipatory expertise: Plurality and contestation of futures knowledge in governance - introduction to the special issue. Science Technology Studies, 32(4), 2-12. https://doi.org/10.23987/sts.87369
Boston, J. (2016). Governing for the future: Designing democratic institutions for a better tomorrow. Leeds: Emerald Group Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/S2053-7697201725
Business Finland. (2025). Quarterly foresight; Signals of change; Mutualistic technologies; IFTF Systems Mythology. Retrieved from: https://www.businessfinland.fi/globalassets/julkaisut/signals-of-change-summer-2025.pdf
Choi, M., & Choi, H. (2015). Foresight for science and technology priority setting in Korea. Foresight and STI Governance, 9(3), 54-67. https://doi.org/10.17323/1995-459X.2015.3.54.65
Cuhls, K. E. (2020). Horizon scanning in foresight–Why horizon scanning is only a part of the game. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(1), e23. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.23
Fartash, K. & Ghorbani, A. (2023). Future megatrends and trends: A study of social, economic, political, technological, and environmental trends, ISTI Press. Retrieved from: https://zaya.io/uzpqw (Persian)
Fartash, K., Ghorbani, A., & Baramaki, T. (2023). Review of international experiences of activities and programs of foresight institutions, ISTI Press. Retrieved from: https://zaya.io/guuqh (Persian)
Fartash, K., Ghorbani, A., Kheiri, E., & Ghadamgahi, N. (2024). Requirements for AI development: A review of international experiences in infrastructure, stakeholders, regulation, policy incentives, government investment, and AI research and business domains, ISTI Press. https://zaya.io/70m5n (Persian)
For-Learn (2014). Excerpt from online foresight guide. Retrieved 08 August 2015 from: http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/9_key-terms/foresight.htm. Accessed 8 Aug 2015
Galston, B., Kamarck, E., & Randers, J. (2016). Intertemporal policy-making in advanced democracies: The risk of a presentist bias. Leeds: Emerald Group Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/S2053-769720160000025 001
Galvin, B. (2025). The role of foresight in public policy: Lessons from deliberative democracy and perspectival realism. European Journal of Futures Research, 13(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-024-00246-0
Gavahi, A., & Babaei, M. (2017). Investigating the status of foresight in Iran and several selected countries. Iranian Journal of Futures Studies, 2(1), 1-25. Retrieved from: https://journals.ikiu.ac.ir/article_1148_952c77941ada8b8dfb0afe5142840d37.pdf (Persian)
Georghiou, L., & Keenan, M. (2006). Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(7), 761-777. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2005.08.003
Ghadamgahi, N. (2023). Films, television series, and documentaries promoting the future of science, technology, and innovation, ISTI Press. Retrieved from: https://zaya.io/w2pwi (Persian)
Gokhberg, L., Meissner, D., & Sokolov., A. (2016). Deploying foresight for policy and strategy makers; Creating opportunities through public policies and corporate strategies in science, technology and innovation. Switzerland: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25628-3
Hafezi, R. (2021). Foresight, and science, technology and innovation policy. Rahyaft, 31(3), 123-128. (Persian) https://doi.org/10.22034/rahyaft.2022.13945
Havas, A., & Weber, M. (2018). Foresight as a governance tool to help shape the next production revolution. In E. Nováky, & A. Gubik (Eds.), A múltból átívelő jövő, Győr: Palatia Nyomda és Kiadó Kft (pp. 207-216). Retrieved from: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/90370/
Havas, A., Schartinger, D., & Weber, M. (2010). The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: Recent experiences and future perspectives. Research Evaluation, 19(2), 91-104. https://doi.org/10.3152/095820210X510133
Islamic Parliament Research Center. (2025). Charter of co-creation for the future of Iran (3); A vision of the future of Iran based on metaphors of progress. Reports, 32(11), e20393. (Persian) 10.22034/report.mrc.2025.1403.32.11.20393
ISTI. (2024). Iran’s National Science and Technology Foresight Programme Secretariat: Activities and plans [Unpublished Report]. (Persian)
ISTI. (2026 April 29-30). Iran’s National Science and Technology Foresight programme: An overview of recent activities. In The BRICS workshop on technology foresight and STI policy, Punjab, India.
KISTEP. (2022). The 6th science and technology foresight (2021-2045) [Report]. Retrieved from: https://B2n.ir/pn1219
Koch, T. (2006). Establishing rigour in qualitative research: the decision trail. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 53(1), 91-100. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365- 2648.1994.tb01177.x
Kousari, S., & Rahmati, F. S. (2019). Future-oriented researches and its roles in STI policy making. Journal of Science & Technology Policy, 11(2), 103-118. (Persian) https://doi.org/0.1001.1.20080840.1398.12.2.8.3
Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J. T. M., & Popper, S. W. (2019). Decision making under deep uncertainty: From theory to practice. Switzerland: Springer Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2
Meissner, D., & Sokolov, A. (2013). Foresight and science, technology and innovation indicators. In F. Gault (Ed.), Handbook of innovation indicators and measurement (Chap. 16) (pp. 381-402). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69557-5_3
Miles, I., & Keenan, M. (2002). Practical guide to regional foresight in the United Kingdom. European Commission. Retrieved from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235 248345_Practical_Guide_to_Regional_Foresight_in_the_UK
Miles, L., Saritas, O., & Sokolov, A. (2016). Foresight for science, technology and innovation. Switzerland: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32574-3
Mir-Mazaheri, M. (2024). Discovering the characteristics and dimensions of anticipatory governance using the meta-synthesis method. Journal of Transcendental Governance, 5(2), 1-19. (Persian)
Mishra, S., & Dey, A. K. (2022). Understanding and identifying ‘themes’ in qualitative case study research. South Asian Journal of Business and Management Cases, 11(3), 187-192. https://doi.org/10.1177/22779779221134659
Murphy, M. P., & Heffernan, A. (2026). Sharpening the tools of foresight analysis and scenario planning through engagement with critical security studies. Alternatives: Global, Local, Political. https://doi.org/10.1177/03043754261435074
Namdarian, L., & Naghizadeh, R. (2019). Strategic Intelligence in Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Making (STI). Journal of Science & Technology Policy, 11(2), 87-101. (Persian)
OECD. (2025). Building anticipatory capacity with strategic foresight in government: Lessons from Lithuania, Italy, and Malta. OECD Public Governance Reviews. Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.1787/d7eb0bb6-en
Oranga, J., & Matere, A. (2023). Qualitative research: Essence, types and advantages. Open Access Library Journal, 10(12), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1111001
Ouma‐Mugabe, J., Botha, A., & Letaba, P. (2024). Institutionalizing foresight in science, technology, and innovation in sub‐Saharan Africa. Development Policy Review, 42, e12789. https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12789
Popper, R. (2018 January 18). Foresight and the future of science. 275th Anniversary symposium of the Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Nuremberg, Germany.
Priebe, M., Warnke, P., & Weber, M. (2025). Setting the scene for discussing innovation policy directions: Foresight as a practice of synchronizing. Futures, 103681. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103681
Reilly‐King, F., Duggan, C., & Wilner, A. (2024). Foresight and futures thinking for international development co‐operation: Promises and pitfalls. Development Policy Review, 42, e12790. https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12790
Rezaeian, F. & Fartash, k. (2024). Future day: A day of dialogue between policymakers and researchers toward shaping a sustainable future. ISTI Press. Retrieved from: https://zaya.io/re63e (Persian)
Rezaeian, F. (2023). Monitoring emerging fields and technologies. ISTI Press. Retrieved from: https://zaya.io/z6ntl (Persian)
Robinson, D. K., Schoen, A., Lar´edo, P., Gallart, J. M., Warnke, P., Kuhlmann, S., & Ordo´nez-Matamoros, ˜ G. (2021). Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 169, 120803. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120803
Safari, H, Ghazinoory, S, Hassanzadeh, A., & Soltani, A. M. (2024). Facing the challenges of selecting fundamental research in the seventh development plan a blockchain approach. Rahyaft, 34(1), 83-98. (Persian) https://doi.org/10.22034/rahyaft.2025.11874.1563
Safdari Ranjbar, M., & Bagheri Moghadam, N. (2024). A critical review of science and technology priority setting experiences in Iran; Pathology and requirements for improvement. Rahyaft, 34(3), 5-22. https://doi.org/10.22034/rahyaft.2025.11853.1554 (Persian)
Saldaña, J. (2021). The coding manual for qualitative researchers. Thousand Oaks: Sage.
Saritas, O. (2024). Foresight in the twenty-first century and methodological advancements. In: Saritas, O., Sokolov, A., & Cele, M. (Eds.), 21st Century foresight; science, technology and innovation studies. Gewerbestrasse: Springer Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69557-5_2
Saritas, O., & Anim, D. A. (2017). The last and next 10 years of foresight. Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP, 77. https://doi.org/10.2139/ ssrn.3089649
Saritas, O., Veselitskaya, N., & Sokolov, A. (2024). Foresight methodology and commonly used methods in the new generation foresight. In 21st Century Foresight: Shaping the future for sustainable social, economic and environmental development in South Africa (pp. 35-53). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69557-5_4
Schmidt, J. M. (2015). Policy, planning, intelligence and foresight in government organizations. Foresight, 17(5), 489-511. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-12-2014-0081
Sokolov, A. (2024). Foresight for science, technology and innovation policy: Relevance and uses for emerging economies. In: O. Saritas, A. Sokolov, & M. Cele (Eds.), 21st Century foresight, science, technology and innovation studies. Gewerbestrasse: Springer Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69557-5_3
Sokolov, A., & Chulok, A. (2016). Priorities for future innovation: Russian S&T foresight 2030. Futures, 80, 17-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.12.005
Sokolova, A. (2022). Pre-foresight integrative methodology for STI policy: Increasing coherence and impact. Futures, 135, 102875. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102875
Taati, M., Keshavarz Tork, E., Ghasemi, H., & Darvishi Setallani, F. (2021). Impact of foresight on policy making and anticipatory governance with a global perspective. Science and Technology Policy Letters, 11(1), 18-34. (Persian) 20.1001.1.24767220.1400.11.1.1.9
Talebi, A., & Nemati, M. A. (2018). Collaborative foresight: An effective governance of university policy making. Science and Technology Policy Letters, 07(4), 17-24. (Persian) 20.1001.1.24767220.1396.07.4.2.8.
Tsujino, T., & Yokoo, Y. (2006). Technology foresight surveys in China. Science and Technology Trends, Quarterly Review, (20). Retrieved from: https://fileserver-az.core.ac.uk/download/pdf/236667356.pdf
Van‘t Klooster, S. A., Cramer, T., & van Asselt, M. B. A. (2024). Foresight in action: A longitudinal study based on a 25-year journey in the world of policy-oriented foresight. Futures, 155, 103294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103294
Wenzel, M., Krämer, H., Koch, J., & Reckwitz, A. (2020). Future and organization studies: On the rediscovery of a problematic temporal category in organizations. Organization Studies, 41(10), 1441-1455. https://doi.org/10.1177/017084062091297
 

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار