نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار دانشگاه تهران
2 استادیار آینده پژوهی پژوهشکده مطالعات بنیادین علم و فناوری دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
3 عضو هیات علمی و رئیس گروه آینده پژوهی مرکز پژوهشهای مجلس
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction
In an era of rapid and complex global transformations—from climate change to digital disruptions—traditional linear policymaking has become inadequate. Modern governance systems are thus shifting toward anticipatory governance. The Iranian Parliament, as the main legislative and oversight institution, plays a crucial role in shaping the nation's future. However, a persistent gap exists between foresight knowledge and actionable legislative policy. Notably, while executive bodies favor technical, predictive approaches, parliaments require visionary, participatory, and transformative foresight methods to address long-term societal challenges and build public consensus.
Purpose and Methodology
This study aims to design a conceptual-executive model for embedding anticipatory governance within the Iranian Parliament. Using a qualitative, applied and developmental approach, the research was conducted in two phases: (1) a review of global parliamentary foresight practices, followed by focus groups with experts and former managers of the Islamic Parliament Research Center; and (2) a thematic analysis to tailor the findings to Iran’s specific structural, legal, and cultural context.
Findings
The study identifies four distinct paradigms of legislative foresight: (1) Bureaucratic Demand-Driven—a symbolic, project-based approach that leaves core procedures unchanged; (2) Future-Sensitive (Adaptive)—employing environmental scanning and early warning systems to gradually build institutional intelligence; (3) Participatory Co-Creation—engaging citizens and stakeholders to enhance legitimacy and prevent social resistance; and (4) Critical-Transformative—a radical approach deconstructing flawed policy paradigms to address deep-rooted crises. These typologies form the basis of a conceptual-executive matrix aligning ten core foresight functions with the governance styles.
Conclusion and Policy Implications
Institutionalizing anticipatory governance represents a fundamental paradigm shift in the legislative process, enhancing legislative quality, shifting from reactive to proactive policymaking, and strengthening institutional resilience under uncertainty.
Based on their findings and understanding of Iran's parliamentary conditions, the authors recommend beginning with the future-sensitive type as a low-cost, feasible pathway. Subsequently, establishing a cross-sectoral future commission with an advisory role can create a safe institutional space for non-partisan dialogue on long-term prospects. In parallel, strengthening early warning and scenario-building capacities within the Parliament's Research Center, and gradually introducing participatory approaches on low-sensitivity topics are advised. These steps can improve legislative quality, prevent reactive policies, and increase resilience against future uncertainties. Essential prerequisites include securing political support from parliamentary leadership, relying on the agency of progressive parliamentarians, and enhancing technical capacities through reliable data and methodological development. Ultimately, success depends on sustained political commitment, technical capacity-building, a future-oriented institutional culture, and networked governance.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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